On May 16, the Drug Enforcement Administration (“DEA“) published its 92-page notice of proposed rulemaking (“NPRM“) to move marijuana from schedule 1 on the Controlled Substances Act (“CSA”) to schedule 3 (ironically, the proposed rule itself only takes up a couple of paragraphs on the last two pages of the NPRM). On the same day, the DEA released an opinion from the Office of Legal Counsel (within the Department of Justice (“DOJ”), which prepares legal opinions of the U.S. Attorney General “and provides its own written opinions and other advice in response to requests from the Counsel to the President, the various agencies of the Executive Branch, and other components of the Department of Justice”) in response to questions from the U.S. Attorney General’s office about schedule 3 marijuana (the “Opinion”). While the NPRM represents the proposed DEA rule that moves marijuana from schedule 1 to schedule 3, the Opinion is essentially the OLC’s roadmap for fending off legal and administrative challenges to this historic move.

Hemp Production and Prices Increase

Earlier this year, hemp was included in the USDA’s Census of Agriculture. When hemp was first legalized in 2018, there was a boom in production under the fervor of new opportunities, spearheaded by the demand for CBD products. This resulted in over production and over supply. The CBD market was over-saturated within a growing season and hemp biomass prices plummeted, along with hemp production. More recently, however, hemp production has leveled out and is even increasing as reported by the USDA on April 17, 2024. As an example, prices for hemp outdoor-grown flower are up 35% and hemp clone and transplant prices are up 61%.

Between LinkedIn, Twitter, the media, and diehard marijuana investors, there is more noise and froth in the industry about a marijuana reschedule than I’ve seen since Washington and Colorado legalized it back in 2012. When speculation about the Feds starts to explode in the industry, I usually ignore most of it as fairly useless hearsay backed by a lot of hope, negativity, and/or hypotheticals.

This time, the tea leaves surround the number one question in the industry, will there be a 2024 marijuana reschedule from the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) on the back of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) schedule III recommendation? Namely, is a marijuana reschedule imminent that could change the entire course of success for the industry?

In October 2022, President Biden asked the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) and the Attorney General to review how marijuana is scheduled under federal law. In August 2023, the HHS marijuana recommendation went to the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA). In October 2023, HHS released a heavily redacted copy of its recommendation to DEA. And until last Friday, no one outside of Bloomberg News and choice government insiders had seen the totality of the HHS marijuana recommendation. However, thanks to a Freedom of Information Act legal battle by lawyer Matt Zorn, the public can now see all 252 pages of (and related to) HHS’s marijuana recommendation to DEA.